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Beating (up) the house
The Patriots are running roughshod over the oddsmakers, too
By Mike Wilkening
Nov. 1, 2007
Robert Walker sounded like any defensive coordinator who has had the misfortune of trying to stop Tom Brady and the Patriots’ offense in 2007:
“They’re killing us.”
Walker isn’t a coach — he’s the sports book director for the MGM Mirage casinos. Nonetheless, he knows what it’s like to try to play defense against New England.
In every game this season, bookmakers have installed the Patriots as a pointspread favorite. Every time, the Patriots have covered. And they have usually covered comfortably. In six of the Patriots’ first eight wins of the season, the Patriots exceeded the spread by at least 13½ points.
“They’re covering every number you put up right now,” said Jason McCormick, race and sports book director at Red Rock Casino in Las Vegas. “You can’t put a number high enough right now.”
As a result, the Patriots are more popular than ever with the betting public, a group that prefers popular teams and pointspread favorites. Hence, bookmakers have been forced to set Patriots lines higher than they ever imagined. New England has been favored by more than two touchdowns in four of its first eight games. Never before in Bill Belichick’s smashingly successful tenure as head coach had the Patriots ever laid that many points.
Dan O’Brien, a senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants, which advises the majority of Nevada sports books on pointspreads, wonders if we’re seeing history — both of the NFL and spread variety — in the making.
“We are always looking to compare things and put things into context — and there is no context here,” he said.
Looking into the future
In conjunction with setting odds on the Patriots finishing unbeaten, Las Vegas Sports Consultants has set pointspreads for New England’s final seven games. The lines assume the Pats will stay unbeaten and will keep playing at their current level. They also assume New England won’t suffer any injuries material to the pointspread and won’t rest starters if it secures a postseason bid and/or home-field advantage in the AFC.
Date
Opponent
The Line
Nov. 18
at Buffalo
New England by 17
Nov. 25
vs. Philadelphia
New England by 16½
Dec. 3
at Baltimore
New England by 13½
Dec. 9
vs. Pittsburgh
New England by 13½
Dec. 16
vs. N.Y. Jets
New England by 21
Dec. 23
vs. Miami
New England by 24*
Dec. 29
at N.Y. Giants
New England by 10
* — Could be the highest pointspread for an NFL game since San Francisco was favored by 23½ points vs. Cincinnati on Dec. 5, 1993.
The Patriots’ success against the spread is not a new development. Since 2001, and including postseason games, New England has covered at a remarkable 64.9 percent clip. Since losing at Miami on Dec. 9, 2006, the Patriots have covered 13-of-14 games, with their only loss against the spread coming by a half-point at Indianapolis in the AFC championship game.
Handicappers looking to beat the Patriots in the Belichick-Brady era haven’t found many angles that work. The Pats travel well, as evidenced by a 29-10-1 ATS record on the road since 2003, a span that includes all of the Patriots’ postseason games. What’s more, they have covered in 12 of their last 14 road games.
A surefire losing strategy in recent years has been to wager against the Patriots the week after a straight-up loss. New England usually gets back on track, and quickly, as evidenced by a sparkling 12-2 ATS record in such games. The most recent example came in Week 15 of last season, when the Patriots, favored by 12 at home after being shut out at Miami, pummeled the Texans 40-7.
For bettors, the Patriots have been as versatile as Adalius Thomas. The Pats are adept at covering big spreads, boasting an 8-2 ATS mark as favorites of 10½ points or more since 2002. And they have thrived as underdogs, too. The Patriots’ first Super Bowl-winning club earned a reputation for its excellent play when receiving points from the oddsmakers, and they have continued to have success as underdogs well after trading their plucky image for that of a powerhouse.
How well-regarded are the Patriots by the betting public? After a slew of impressive moves in the offseason, most notably the draft-weekend trade for Randy Moss, the Patriots — and not the defending-champion Colts — were the clear-cut Super Bowl favorites in future-book betting entering the ’07 season.
And from the get-go, New England has looked every bit the part of alpha dog. It started in Week One, with the Patriots dismantling the Jets 38-14. But that win was soon overshadowed by extraordinary news: A Patriots employee had been caught videotaping the Jets’ defensive signals. Three days before New England’s Week Two showdown with San Diego, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell rebuked the Patriots, fining Belichick $500,000 and the organization $250,000 and forcing the Patriots to forfeit at least one 2008 draft selection.
Suddenly, a debate raged about the legitimacy of the Patriots’ three Super Bowl titles in Belichick’s tenure. And bettors were left to decide whether New England, only a 3½-point favorite vs. San Diego, presented a good betting value.
When the Patriots drove down the field and scored a touchdown less than three minutes into the game, the betting public had its answer. In a dominant, emotional performance, New England won 38-14.
Those who have been waiting for a letdown since then have been disappointed. The Patriots have only been seriously challenged once this season, falling behind in the third quarter at Dallas in Week Six. Of course, New England beat back that challenge, winning 48-27.
One of the most memorable moments of that game came when the outcome was no longer in doubt. Perhaps as a dig at Cowboys head coach Wade Phillips, who reportedly said the Pats’ titles were tainted because of “Spygate” — he denied having said that — the Pats’ final touchdown came on a one-yard run by reserve FB Kyle Eckel with 19 seconds left and the Pats holding a two-TD lead. If nothing else, it was a window into the soul of a club in competitive overdrive.
Such relentlessness was again on display one week later in Miami. With the Patriots holding a 21-point lead in the fourth quarter, Brady relieved struggling backup Matt Cassel. A little more than two minutes later, Brady threw his sixth TD pass of the game and came out of the lineup once again, his work for the afternoon finally finished. The Patriots’ killer instinct in excess isn’t lost on those setting the lines. O’Brien joked that New England sometimes plays “like they’ve got boosters to impress or something.”
Walker can’t help but wonder if “Spygate” pushed the Patriots to find another gear.
“We thought this might be an issue, that they might try to show everyone up,” he said. “They’re a great team with a chip on their shoulder.”
The Patriots’ Super Bowl odds have fallen to less than even-money at the Mirage properties (10-11) and at the Harrah’s properties (5-6), which includes Caesars Palace and its famed sports book. As of last week, Caesars listed the AFC champion as an 11½-point favorite over the NFC champion. “And that might be low,” joked Chuck Esposito, the assistant vice president of race and sports at Caesars.
Bettors are also jumping on the chance to bet on the Patriots finishing the season unbeaten. Such wagers are considered sucker bets by professional handicappers, but the betting public is smitten with New England. Walker said that the Mirage initially set the odds at the Patriots going 19-0 at plus-500 — meaning bettors would win $5 for every $1 wagered if New England doesn’t lose a game — but consistent Patriots action has driven it down to plus-300. And those odds may soon be a thing of the past: As of the middle of last week, LVSC had set the odds of a Patriots unbeaten season at plus-210, with the odds of the Patriots suffering a loss at some point at minus-270, meaning a successful “no” wager would pay $1 for every $2.70 bet.
If that first loss comes at Indianapolis on Nov. 4, it would technically be an upset. The Patriots have been installed as favorites vs. the host Colts on Sunday, with the line fluctuating between 5½ and six points at most sports books the past few days.
No matter what, the Patriots’ spectacular start will keep the pressure on oddsmakers to set lines that will attract both casual and professional bettors. The latter group, often referred to as “sharps” for their uncanny ability to pounce on any misstep by the sports books, generally bets on underdogs — and has been playing against New England, Las Vegas bookmakers said.
What’s more, quite a few casual bettors have started to oppose New England. Esposito noted that the pointspreads fell in the Patriots’ games vs. Cleveland and at Miami because enough of the betting public believed that taking the points was the right play.
But you don’t have to look very hard for people willing to bet on the Patriots, even if they are laying 15½ points as they were in Week Seven in Miami.
“We had a person fly out last week and bet six figures,” Walker said, referring to the Dolphins game, “and all they wanted was New England.”
He paused.
“And they got the money.”
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