Promote your business or product on 700level.com. For
more information about advertising with us CLICK HERE!

I totally agree and see that, but 22.5 sacks over the last 2 years and 30.5 TFL is some nice production to go along with the measureables.

Played in a weak conference and will fail a drug test sooner or later. No thanks.

Couldn't that be said for Chris Long, too? Maybe a weaker schedule, even?

Knock on Gholsten is that he disappears in some games. Not a fan of either. Just don't feel like the blue chippers are real locks this year.

Stumbled on this pretty good breakdown on just why Mocks are so brutal and 1 helluva futile excercise.
Ive come full circle....as a kid I used to do them. I confess.

Even in H.S. and college I would enjoy puttin at least the 1st round and a half (wherever Philly picked) together.

Even the 1st couple years here I'd do one and post it. Now, as stated previously, I think they're junk and nothing more than something to perhaps wager on, pick by pick.

Anyway- enjoy.____________________________________

Clowns and jokers: the mock draft scorecard
Cold, Hard Football Facts April 22, 2008


The mock-draft "expert" is the used-car salesman of the sports world, a greasy snake making it up as he goes, hoping you won't notice the rusty bucket of his expertise beneath the suit he wears like a cheap paint job.

The Cold, Hard Football Facts have been making a mockery of the mock draft since our first off-season in 2005. It’s easy to do: mock drafts are so inaccurate that we confuse them with the Chicago Bears passing game.

The basic problem is this: even the most noted draft "experts" have no idea what's going to happen in the draft. None. Zero. Zilch. Nada. They are, in other words, clueless.

Mel Kiper? Clueless.

Scouts, Inc.? Clueless.

Fox Sports? Clueless.

We know they're clueless because we work with the trusty pigskin mechanic called the Cold, Hard Football Facts and they spotlight all the flaws on the lemon the draft-niks are trying to pawn off on you.

We've tracked the final mock draft performance of six noted draft-niks each of the past three years. We’ve followed four of these draft “pundits” – including some of the most notable draft “experts” – in each of those three years. Forced to describe their mock drafts in one word, we'd use "laughingstock."

Here’s the cumulative first-round-only mock draft performance of these four experts over the past three seasons.

MOCK DRAFT TRACK RECORD (first round, 2005-07)

Mock Draft Clown/ # of correct pks/ Pct.
OurLads 29 of 96= 30.2%
Jay Glazer (Fox Sports) 28 of 96 = 29.2%
Mel Kiper Jr. 25 of 96 = 26.0%
Scouts Inc. 22 of 96 = 22.9%


On average, even the most noted draft "experts" get about 8 or 9 of the 32 first-round picks correct.

But it's even worse than it appears, folks.

The bulk of those 8 or 9 correct picks come in the first 12 to 15 picks of the first round. They may get one or two picks right in the second half of the first round. Last year, for example, our group of six draft experts accurately predicted:
46 of 96 picks (47.9%) in the first half of the first round
just 11 of 96 picks (11.5%) in the second half of the first round
After that, the greatest draft "pundits" get zero (that's 0 for those of you counting at home) correct in any round beyond the first round.

So, to give you the whole sordid story: the "experts" nail, on average, about 9 of the 220-plus players selected in the NFL draft. That's about 4 percent correct (or 96 percent wrong). We don't care what line of business you're in, a 4 percent success rate does not make you an "expert."

The only thing that's a bigger waste of time than a mock draft is actually giving credence to what these totally inaccurate mock drafts offer. Sadly, football fans are often guilty: "Hey, Scouts, Inc. thinks we're going to draft Billy Joe Jim Bob! Awesome!!!"

But as you just witnessed, the draft-niks have no idea what's going to happen on Draft Day. These greasy snakes of the sports world just make it up as they go, their partially educated guesses no more accurate than the partially educated guesses of the average football fan sitting there at home

Link to the site in anyone's interested....some decent stuff out here from time to time...


click here

Mock drafts are absolutely useless and futile, but that doesn't change the fun of them for me.

What's the alternative? Not doing them? Not speculating?

That's all well and good, but it kinda make the weeks leading up to the draft futile. All these thing...guessing in FA, mock drafts, draft grades, predicting wins/losses/playoff teams/champions in the summer, etc. are useless, but still fun.

That's my take, at least.

In a weird stance, he NFL told the Rams they cannot negotiate with their pick even though #1 is a done deal.

They are catching flack and I'm guessing they'll flip-flop on this, but it was a bizarre ruling I thought I'd mention.

F_D, I hope you didn't take my article posted and sentiment expressed as in any way a dig on you.

If I have your age correct, I was still doing them when I was your age.

But the 'fun' of the offseason and the draft is surely not tied to a Mock for me.
I still get all the "Draftnik" stuff, still like to try to pair up value, need etc for teams- and of course theirs the 'what do you want for Philly" aspect to it (and the ultimate disapointment with it 9 outta 10 times).

Wonder why the League won't let the Rams get their sign on...

Worried about the 1st round moving at an accelerated pace perhaps? That cant be it. If the contract for long's signed and filed with the league, there's no goin back so what could be the issue?

Definitely didn't take it as a dig or anything.

I never did a mock before and did them this year for the first time just to generate discussion in the draft thread as Saturday approached.

I just don't know how many people out there actually look at the mock drafts as a nugget of useful information on which direction a team is going. All you can do is look at the "why" of the pick given and see if that logic makes sense, but logic doesn't often have much to do with it. Teams have their own opinions and feelings that are often different than what the outsiders or pundits think. I've seen a couple recent mocks that have the Birds taking Jared Mayo with the 19th pick, for instance. Never gonna happen.

I just think that without all the mocks and draftniks, the draft wouldn't be even close to what it is.

When did they first start televising the draft? The draftniks made that possible and they've fed each other ever since. Before the draftniks there wasn't enough information out there for anyone to care, but I think the Internet and mock drafts from the "experts" (uninformed as they are) are the reason the draft has completely blown up over the last..what...10 years?

So, Al Gore is responsible for draft day becoming a grown man's Christmas?

On the RAMs being prevented from signing, I would speculate that the #1 pick can negotiate with fewer contingencies but that the #2 pick has more contingencies. The #1 pick can negotiate to say that if we get the first pick and we pick you this is the amount we would like to sign you for. The second pick has to negotiate to say that if the #1 pick follows through on draft day and no one offers a last trade or moves up ahead of us etc. etc. Overall, after the first pick, negotiating ahead of time robs the time of the oppurtunities that would present themselves to other teams as a result of "being on the clock"

"All you can do is look at the "why" of the pick given and see if that logic makes sense, but logic doesn't often have much to do with it." -FD


No crap. When I was a kid I'd be ticked each year when the Cards made their pick and it blew up my Mock.

I think , FWIW, before the intense media coverage, before interwebs etc- im talkin when i used to do em as a 14 yr old kid- they were FAR easier to drill.

You had Ourlads guide that EVERY team used and you could subscribe to year round, which I did since i was about 14, and then perhaps something for the industry only- but that was it.

I recall the year that Dallas took Emmitt- I had a lucky run and almost drilled the 1st round, (for a kid anyway)- didnt think much of it but i remember my Dad being kinda taken with it.

Oh, and the Dork-Meter was off the charts that year cos I believe it was the year i did a full 3 rounds....(oh God...)

On the value of the Mock Draft, the further down the line you go the greater the number of possible permutations to pick from, making the odds of getting them all right rather impossible.
If there is a hundred players to pick from your odds of getting the exact right sequence are 100x99x98x97x96x95x94 etc. Even for compensating for the fact that there is no way an ungifted player gets picked at #1, the odds are still difficult.

A better measure of the accuracy of the mock draft would be to say a correct hit is obtained if the projected player goes within plus or minus four projected positions. To me the value of the mock draft is roughly project the value of the players being picked.

I think another measure of a mock draft would be to match the positions selected by teams to the mock projected needs. No mock draft predicted the need for the Eagles to draft a QB last year. On the other hand, a lot of experts project the Eagles like to take offensive line. It would be nice to see the track record of mock draft projections against the positions actually taken. So we could say that Mel Kiper has been excellent at projecting what positions the RAM's wanted and horrible at predicting what the Eagles want.

I recall the year that Dallas took Emmitt- I had a lucky run and almost drilled the 1st round, (for a kid anyway)- didnt think much of it but i remember my Dad being kinda taken with it.

Oh, and the Dork-Meter was off the charts that year cos I believe it was the year i did a full 3 rounds....(oh God...)

Did they televise the draft at that point or did you just have to check on ESPN or in the paper later?

I've been trying to figure out the television history of the draft and am coming up blank.

Oh, yeah, sorry- they absolutely did televise it.
By today's standards it was a SMALL SCALE production.

It was on ESPN, i distinctly recall Berman hosting.

Pete Axthelm was alive then and he co-anchored i THINK.

I was down the shore and had all my crap spread out, on the 1st floor in the livingroom down there with my own war-room. I had followed it prior to HIS draft, mind you- cos by the time he was picked I was I THINK in H.S. (Age catching up to me- I think I coulda been in 10th grade? Im not positive now when he was selected but it'd be an easy matter to look up once im done posting)

What
A
Tool

Hey, if you cant laugh at yourself, right??

Well real quick- just looked up "E" on ESPN and says he went in the '90 draft, so I was absolutely in HS.

I would say I watched it/followed it maybe the year before Buddy Ryan was here- whats that, 86? Right around there- so we'll go with 1985, and yes, it was on TV.

I think i was 'hooked' when the Birds took "the Medical Reject" who happened to be my favorite college player back then- OSU's Keith Byars. That woulda been 86 when Ryan was first hired.

While we're dissecting/piecing together history etc- you simply MUST tip the cap to ol' Mel Kiper Jr.

Whether you love him, hate him, or want to run a shiv thru his eye like Bill Polian- this guy gave the draft a "Face"- someone who could pepper the broadcast with 1 part charisma, 1 part mad research/homework/preparation and 1 part smug know-it-all that they were wise to craft and taylor their coverage around over the years.

I like Polian and his draft history is amazing. Watching a guy like him field questions and watching Heckert do his best to survive on the mic is night and day.

I agree completely on Kiper, too. The fact that he looks more and more like a Vegas pit boss every day is also hilarious.

I style my hair after Kiper....















(kiddin)

The more time passes, the more I want Talib at 19, I think. I'm hoping they can unload Lito before that pick and I'm hoping Talib ends up in green.

He's a ball hawk and gives them an answer for some of the bigger WRs the Eagles face in the NFS East.

The problem is, Talib might not make it to 19.

I wouldn't be upset if they took another CB, it just makes it harder to trade Lito.

I read on PFT.com, that the Eagles are going to make at least 1, possibly 2 big splashes at the draft on Sat. They claimed that the eagles will add a veteran WR and move up from 19.

I don't know many Eagles fans who would be upset by that, but sometimes I wonder if their rumors are generated by sites like this.

Talib might not be there, but if he is...that's the guy I want.

As far as the Eagles making a big move, I think it's fairly clear that while they've ultimately failed in almost every attempt, they are dying to make an impact.

They got Samuel, but think about it...they tried to sign Moss, they tried to trade for Fitz, they inquired about Boldin, Roy, and Ocho.

For a team that think they are "good" at the WR position, there are only about 3 left they haven't checked into.

Color me shocked that none of those guys has moved on, too. I can't believe the restraint (possibly stupidity) teams are showing in not trading these WRs.

In Cincy, they have Housh and still won't deal. In Zona, they have Fitz and still won't deal. In Detroit they have Megatron and Furrey...still won't deal Roy.

And all of those teams were bad last year with needs all over the depth chart. It's bizarre.

BTW, this from Heckert during his media session a couple days ago:

"We're not going into this saying we have to have a returner," general manager Tom Heckert said in a session with reporters earlier this week. "Now, there are some position players we like, at different positions, who also return. Would we like to have a guy that returns? Yeah. But it's not a position where we're going to draft a kid, move him up, just because he returns . . . We think we have some guys on our team that can do it for us."

I know he's lying, but why does he continually say stupid things? You can by slick without coming off like an idiot.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14  15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30